Cubs Top 30+ Prospects

I've been saying that I was going to post this for awhile, and now that the news is slowing down a bit, I finally have time to put it up. Today I'll start with 21-30, and we'll work our way up from there. Please leave comments!

One preliminary note about my prospect rankings: I try and bridge the gap as best I can between the tools guys that scouts love and numbers guys that only internet baseball people love. I think the numbers guys tend to succeed more in the long run, all things being equal including opportunity, but you can't dismiss a guy who was a 2nd round pick just because he hit .250. Most of the guys on the list I have seen play, and many of them I have seen more than once, so most of my analysis is based on both numbers and draft position, and also my experience playing and coaching the sport. It's certainly an imperfect science, but I stand by everything I write. Enjoy.

29. A. Jason Dubois, 1b/OF, .321/.422/.562 in 361 ABs at Daytona.

29. B. Kevin Collins, 1B. .342/.399/.668 in 187 ABs at Boise.

29. C. Brian Dopirak, 1B, 6-4, 225 , .253 in 79 ABs at Mesa. Scouted as one of the top power hitters of the 2002 draft - CW says he'll either flame out in AA or hit 40 homers...

29. D. Brandon Sing, 3B, .248/.348/.434 - 18 HR - in 440 ABs at Daytona.

These four guys all end up at #29 for different reasons. I'm one of the few people who actually tries to distinguish between guys who can just flat play (read: numbers), and guys who have great tools (read: scouts). On the numbers side, we have Collins and Dubois. Dubois just keeps hitting. Nobody seems to care much about him, but this year he moved from 1B to OF almost full time and seemed to handle himself well. I've seen him hit, and his swing does tend to get a little long, and we'll know at AA whether that's really true, but geez the guy can just flat mash. His .984 OPS was in the top 3 for players who played a full season in A ball. Scouts don't love him, but I don't care, he's exactly the kind of guy that is fun to root for, and if he succeeds next year, I might even be called smart for including him on this list (when I'm pretty sure nobody else will).

Collins is basically Dubois without the three years of success. He killed the ball at Boise this year with a whopping 1.067 OPS (!!), but that was in short season and the skeptics will point out that he was a little old for the league (he's 21). We'll see, but if he keeps hitting, who am I to say that the scouts don't like him?

Dopirak is the most highly regarded of these four and was a 2nd round pick of the Cubs last summer. Allegedly, he's got tons of raw power and is decent defensively at 1B, but marginal in the OF. The Cubs have had enough success with guys like Dubois that they could afford to take a flier on Dopirak to see if this 50 HR power ever develops. Until he plays at a bit more advanced level, and succeeds there, I'm gonna keep him on the back burner since I don't know much about him.

Sing is basically what Dopirak will probably be in a few years - a guy with tremendous power, but who can't seem to let everyone know whether or not he's going to be any good. He did slug 18 HRs this year, and his progression in HRs from year to year is nice, but he usually is pretty error prone at 3B and his BA has never been very good. That would be ok if he hit 30 HRs, but 18 is pushing the limit. He'll obviously face a huge challenge this year at AA, but if he can improve the BA into the .260-.270 range, and keep his decent walk rate, I can see him in the top 20 next year.

28. Matt Clanton, RHP, 6-2, 210. Only pitched in 1 inning at Boise at the end of the year

Clanton was a sandwich pick last year out of Orange Coast College. He has a strong pitching frame and flashes the makings of good velocity. Right now he's consistently around 90, but scouts think he projects well and could add a couple MPH as he gets older. His best pitch, when he can control it, is a sharp breaking curve that has the bite of a slider but is more of a 1 to 7 type of pitch. He also throws a changeup. He pitched in limited action last year and his ranking is based almost exclusively on his "hype." I look forward to actually getting to see him throw this Spring in Mesa.

27. J.J. Johnson, OF, .240/.298/.324 in 420 ABs at short A Lansing

What a difference a year makes. Last year, Johnson was in everybody's top 15 after two successful years in Mesa and Boise. Baseball America even named him one of the league's top prospects in its annual roundup. Maybe the cold weather didn't agree with him. I've seen him hit, and he has a nice, quick stroke. He is very athletic and plays an above average OF, after spending some time at 3B. Scouts love his "tools" and if it all works out, he's one of those guys people will say has a great "baseball body." Word is that he fell into a slump early last year, and he began swinging at everything to break out of it. It's too early to write him off, but he'll likely be back at Lansing this year. If he rebounds, he could easily move quickly.

26. Matt Craig, IF, 6-2, 200. Only .193/.252/.314 at Boise after being a 3rd round pick.

Struggled with wood in limited exposure at Boise, but is a switch hitter out of the University of Richmond. Has excellent baseball "smarts" (how does one define that anyway) and flashes a nice glove most of time. Played alot of 3B with the Cubs, where they feel he will make the most impact. If that's the case, he'll have to have a little more pop in his bat than he did in college. Still, he's athletic with soft hands and is worth giving a few years of development time before really figuring him out. Switch hitting infielders don't exactly grow on trees and the Cubs feel his gap power might translate to home run power as he gets older. Probably will return to Boise, but might scratch his way to Lansing.

25. John Leicester, RHP, 2-2, 4.61 ERA in 27 IP at AA, 2-3 3.97 in 81 IP at Daytona. Low Ks.

Slowly but surely creeping up my list. Here's a guy who was 0-11 his senior year in college, and the first scouting reports on him were that he threw 86-87 and has average stuff. I saw him almost two years ago and thought he had nice mechanics but really wasn't anything overly special. Then I saw him last spring and thought he had really improved his stuff and he had a great idea about pitching. In fact, last year I said "He’s one of those guys who might add 2 mph and just really jump on you." Then he goes to the AFL this year and reports are that he's up into the 92-94 range (!!), but was having severe control problems. #1 - it's a great sign that the Cubs sent him to the AFL. #2 - it's an even better sign that he continues to get better, bit by bit. #3 - it's still better that he's added so much velocity. Given that he has textbook mechanics and a good idea of how to setup hitters, he's a clear choice for sleeper on the bottom half of this list. He'll probably go back to West Tennessee to start the year, but I'll be watching very closely to see if this newfound velocity translates into better results.

24. Reynel Pinto, LHP, 3-3 5.51 ERA in 32 IP at Daytona, 7-5, 3.31 in 98 IP at Lansing, 92 Ks.

Pinto is one of those raw left handed arms that is tought to project. Reports are that he has decent breaking stuff and good whip on his fastball such that he projects to yet add some more velocity. What we know now is that he's young and has enough raw stuff to be on the radar screen. We'll know alot more this year if he's able to have two straight good years in terms of development (he was off the map almost completely last year).

23. Alfredo Francisco, 3B, .255 in 188 ABs at Mesa, but scouts rave about his body and his projectability

Francisco has received alot of hype since Baseball America saw him in the Spring and raved about some of his moon shots in batting practice and his athletic body. Unfortunately, his numbers didn't exactly bear out the hype. He's the prototypical guy that scouts love - he's still learning the game (ie raw), he has a great arm, he projects to have excellent power, and he already has above average speed. Some might even say he projects as a "five tool" player someday. Unfortunately, last year he played more like Quincy Carter than Sammy Sosa. He's still very, very young so he's allowed to do that for awhile, but hopefully he can hit better than .255 next year, which may be in Mesa again.

22. Sergio Mitre, RHP, 8-10, 2.83 in 158 IP at short A Lansing. 95 Ks.

I've had conflicting thoughts about Mitre since he was drafted in the 7th round out of a California JC 2 years ago. His best asset is a real plus sinker that moves hard and down in the zone. He is successful at peppering the zone in and out with this pitch and as a result gets tons of groundballs. When I saw him last Spring, his breaking stuff was just mediocre, but reports are that he improved them significantly down the stretch as he ended the year pitching very, very well. His velocity is not exceptional, 88-90, but it doesn't have to be with his movement. If his breaking stuff did improve, he should proceed through the minors a level a year, without too much variation in his numbers, making him a candidate to contribute with the Cubs in '04 or '05.

21. Felix Sanchez, LHP, 6-6, 4.15 in 119 IP at short A Lansing. 101 Ks.

Sanchez is the pitcher's version of Francisco. He also got tons of hype from Baseball America, including a mention for hitting 98 on the radar gun this spring in a spring game (I was actually there that day). He's left handed, and throws from a 3/4 slot so that he gets decent movement on the ball. The problem is that he pitches like he's a high school sophomore - a kid who is all arm and no brains - or somebody who just began pitching (which, actually, he did). His mechanics are horribly inconsistent, and his breaking stuff goes from very good to below average on a regular basis. The Cubs are also concerned about his makeup and would like to see him grow up a little this year, evidently he's a pretty loose cannon who doesn't seem to work all that hard or focus all that well. But his upside is clearly very, very high and he's got the kind of stuff where he could make a Juan Cruz type of jump if he starts putting it together. What's more likely, is that he'll put it together every 3rd time out and wow people with 10Ks in 5 IP, but then walk 5 guys in 2 IP the next time. For him, if he can put together the mental and mechanical side, his talent could take over, but I wouldn't expect that for another few years yet.

11-20 will go up over the weekend. Email me here with comments.

Clutch Hits

- The Expos were notified that their 2003 payroll has to be about $40 million, which would be a slight increase from its 2002 level of $38 million. The Expos have also notified teams to start making offers for anyone they're interested in. This means that maybe, just maybe, the Cubs will have some talks with the Expos, but they still won't be along the lines of the ones reported the other day. Jim Hendry himself said yesterday on Chicago radio that he would have no reason to trade good, young, low salary players for good, older, high salaried players. Unless he can pry away Colon or Vlad. Guerrero, I like his thinking.

- It is looking more and more likely that the Rangers and Ivan Rodriguez will part ways tomorrow. Speculation out of Texas is that they are exploring a trade with the Indians for catcher Einar Diaz (he of the .550 OPS). The Rangers only have until tomorrow to offer arbitration to IRod, and if they pass, it will free up the market for some offers to be made. Look for the Cubs to be a definite, but late arriving player, in the Pudge sweepstakes. Even further, there is word that IRod "has something to prove" this winter and is working out daily in the hopes of increasing his stamina and endurance. He would like nothing more than to prove wrong all the Texas people who think he's broken down and washed up. All I can say is that if the market is reasonable, my money is on IRod wearing Cubbie pinstripes next year. Hope he likes day games.

- UPDATE: The deal between Texas and Cleveland was just announced and Texas now has Einar Diaz. Doesn't look like Pudge will stay, so things just officially became more interesting. Here's the story

- Finally, the Cubs have until tomorrow to come to terms with pitcher Jon Lieber on a contract as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. They have already decided that they will not offer him arbitration and are working on an incentive laden deal in the event that he's back pitching this year. Hopefully, they can give him a low base this year and tons of incentives for next year. This seems like a no brainer to me, but you never know what kind of market Lieber's agent thinks he can find for him. Certainly Lieber is a valuable pitcher, and some team will probably take a chance and throw some money on him, but hopefully they can find some common ground and keep the fruit of Ed Lynch's best trade (for Brant Brown no less!)a Cub.

Glavine to the Mets

The Mets signed free agent P Tom Glavine to a 3 year, $35 million contract. There is an option for 2006, which becomes guaranteed if he pitches 200 innings in 2005 or 600 from 2003-05. Folks, and anybody out there who complained about the contract the Cubs gave Mike Remlinger, that's ALOT of money for a 37 year old. Still, he's Tom Glavine, not the latest reincarnation of Mike Mason.

There is also a rumor that the Phillies dropped out of the running when they couldn't get an insurance policy on Glavine for longer than three years, leaving the Mets as Glavine's only real suitor following the breakdown with the Braves.

This is a big deal for the Mets in that they steal away a top pitcher from a division rival. Glavine may not help the Mets win more than another 4-6 games next year, but one also has to factor in that it is unlikely that the Braves can replace him with anyone even close to his value. So the net gain is more likely to be around 7 or 8 games. Psychologically, this is huge for the Mets. They have made a splash on a guy who was their arch rival, and at his best, he's one of the best in the game.

This is also a pretty safe move for the Mets in that it is not likely to prevent them from spending even more money if he turns out to be a bust. In other words, while spending this much money might hamper other teams in future years, you never really think that this will happen to the Mets - they just keep coming up with more money, or more ways to spend money. It's still risky, don't get me wrong, but they won't be crushed if he fails next year -- their budget usually fits whatever their needs end up being. The 4th year option is also pretty sensible - if he's still pitching that many innings, he's probably worth the money.

It has also been speculated that this doesn't help the Mets as much as you might think in that it makes their top two guns both left handed, making them weak against strong RH hitting teams. That's like saying a guy in a duel will lose because both of his pistols are Colts. This just doesn't work, and here's why. #1 - neith Glavine or Leiter are the typical soft tossing curve balling LH pitchers. In fact, Glavine is actually MORE effective against RH hitters such that many switch hitter hit lefty off him. Similarly, Leiter throws that hard cutter and slider in on the hands of RH batters, and his splits do not suggest a huge dropoff in performance against righties. If anything, it's nice that they compliment each other - either with the high fastballs and cutters on the hands, and Glavine with the changeups away and sinkers down. Other than being left handed, they are really not all that similar.

The Mets still need to do something with Ordonez and Burnitz and somehow figure out a way to get Alomar and Piazza back to their peak performance levels, and then we'll start talking division championship. But this is a piece, anyway.

What may be the biggest deal of all is what's going on with the Braves. Before the season ended, speculation was that there was no way that the could bring back BOTH of their big guns, but that one of the two of Glavine and Maddux would return. Now, the safe money is that neither will be back. Can they absorb such a hit? They have alot of good young pitching, but hey, this is Maddux and Glavine we're talking about here. Millwood is a nice #3, but can he be a #1? Moss as a #2? I just don't see it, and Rob Neyer may be right when he says this is probably the end of a dynasty here (albeit one that only won one world series title).

More False Rumors

This one is a bit ridiculous, but there is a rumor out there that Corey Patterson may be available in the right deal. It seems that Bob Nightengale, of the former "Baseball" now "Sports" Weekly, reports in his latest report that this might be possible. Check out The Cub Reporter for more on this.

But don't believe it, folks.

WGN Radio's Dave Kaplan, one of the few guys on the air that seems to know what's going on, said today that he spoke with Hendry within the last few days and Hendry definitively told him he was NOT TRADING Patterson.

He also said that once MLB gives the Expos its budget, it's possible that they will have trade talks with them, but since the Expos don't even know how much they can spend, there is no point to talking with them yet. So until this point they haven't had any discussions with the Expos, effectively squashing Barry Rozner's attempts at having his first "scoop" in about 10 years. This means dice on the Vazquez, Vidro, Tatis rumors. Is that a good or a bad thing? Probably good. The best part is that Hendry specifically said he would never take on Tatis and his contract.

Perhaps the best part of what Kaplan said is that things are being run a bit differently these days. "Business is being handled differently on the North Side. Hendry is the man." Strong praise. Hopefully that means that my digressions below about Karros and Grudz not being full-time players will actually be true.

Trade is Final

Hundley is officially a Dodger. The rumored 4th player was indeed Chad Hermansen, and the Cubs get 2 M in cash as part of the deal.

The Day After...

After the debacle that was last night and all the bogus trade rumors, things seem to be dying down today. It sounds as if the Expos and Rockies rumors aren't to be (thanks WGN radio), although who knows what will happen as things cool off heading into the winter meetings. Here's my reaction to yesterday's trades:

Hundley to LA I didn't hate Todd Hundley as much as everyone else, so I am not as excited to see him leave town. I saw him as a guy who didn't adjust well to a new manager, but was still league average relative to other catchers. I realize that that's more of an indictment of the catchers in the NL, but still. I was always very hesitant to trade him for fear of getting a worse problem (or two) in return.

In a sense, we may have done just that. Given Baker's preference for veterans and all the hogwash that goes with that, it's possible that Karros and Grudz will play ahead of Choi and Hill. Obviously, this would be a tragedy. I can just see Choi and Hill "chilling" on the bench and losing their touch while Karros and Grudz rack up their .250 BAs and 500+ ABs. The horror!

Luckily, I have more faith in Jim Hendry than to think that he'd (a) make this trade and allow what I just talked about to happen, and (b) not talk to Baker before the trade about the roles of Karros and Grudz.

Maybe I'm too much of an optimist.

The money works out pretty evenly. Karros is due 8M this year, with a 1 M buyout next year. Grudz is due 5.5 M this year with a .5 M buyout. Reports are that the Cubs will get somewhere in the neighborhood of an additional 2 M cash to complete the deal. Thus, we pay more money this year than with Hundley (11.5 to 6) but we free up money next year (1.5 M in buyouts to 6.5) so there is more flexibility.

Also, the Cubs are to give up another major leaguer in the deal, but it can't be anyone major. Chris Stynes got released today, so it probably will be OF Chad Hermansen.

If Karros and Grudz are used sparingly, they could be useful. Karros hits lefties at an .800 OPS clip and could be a useful platoon partner so that Choi doesn't have to play against pitchers against whom he's likely to struggle. Grudz can take the place of the usual Augie Ojeda no hit backup infielder that the Cubs always seem to keep around. If their salaries are seen as sunk costs (much like Hundley) and there isn't the pressure to play them just because they are getting paid, this just might work out.

BUT, that's alot of ifs, and it isn't going to take very long before we discover just what kind of manager Baker will be with this young Cub team. If Choi starts off 1-24, and he sits for 3 games sgainst RH starters, it will be a very, very bad start to Baker's run as Cubs Savior.

Koch to the Sox, Foulke to the As I'll analyze the Koch / Foulke deal in a minute.

Latest

Just to be clear, I never said that the Billy Koch rumor was credible - I just said that I saw it somewhere else. It looks completely bogus. Apologies to anyone who thought it was anything more than a rumor, but again, I only said it was a rumor. Besides, it seems pretty unlikely that the Sox would turn around and trade for Hill after not being able to sign him a few years ago, and they have alot of middle infield depth with Jimenez, Harris, Hummel, et al.

More Madness

The latest rumor has some incarnation of Bobby Hill and either Farnsworth or Zambrano over to the White Sox for newly minted "proven" closer Billy Koch, just acquired today from the As. Evidently, my favorite writer - Phil Rogers - is talking about this on the Score and says that he's heard the rumor. (Update #3 (1000 PM CST)It sounds like the Billy Koch rumor is completely false and that Rogers never even talked about it on the radio. That's why we call them rumors and not facts. I never claimed to have an inside source or crazy scoop - I just posted what I read elsewhere.) I can't imagine both Hill and Zambrano in the deal, maybe it's Hill and Farnsworth, but either way this is garbage and is yet another piece in the "proven closer" mess that has evolved in baseball over the past 10-15 years or so. More on that another day.

Looks like the Top 30 will have to wait until things die down - I'm going to search for some more info.

Update: Allegedly, someone who works with Rogers thinks that some White Sox intern started this Koch rumor, so thankfully this seems like a joke.

Also, listening to White Sox GM Kenny Williams on the radio today talk about the benefits of having a real closer in Koch, I thought it was pretty hard to believe he'd immediately turn around and try to trade him. He's down in the Dominican Republic, no less.

Update #2 (930 PM CST): Dave Kaplan was on the radio and he said he just got off the phone with an agent he's known for years. He would not give the agent's name. He said this:

"Here's what I can say: Just got off the phone with an agent I’ve known for a long time. If Hendry is able to pull off the Hundley deal, here’s what’s going to happen. Karros and Grudzielanek will stay Cubs. I believe that the Dodgers will take on some of the money, making the deal even money between the Cubs over the two years.
Possibly have Grudz defer money. This is the only deal on the table. Don’t believe the Expos or Colorado deal rumors. The Cubs are not going to take Fernando Tatis."
Additionally, he said both players will be backup players (whew!).

Say it isn't so...

I guess I won't be getting to write my "Free Todd Hundley" column after all. The Cubs shipped Hundley to the LA Dodgers today in return for two of the most overrated players in baseball - Eric Karros and Mark Gruzielanek (famous for being called Gurziliak by Harry). In short, I don't like this deal.

The next rumor is that the Cubs send Carlos Zambrano, Kyle Farnsworth, and Bobby Hill to the Expos for Javier Vazquez, Jose Vidro, and Fernando Tatis. Wow. THEN, they'll make another deal with the Rockies, sending Tatis and Karros to Colorado for Denny Neagle, his contract, and closer Jose Jimenez.

So in the end, we give up Hundley, Farnsworth, Hill and Zambrano, and we end up with Grudz, Vidro, Vazquez, Neagle, and Jimenez.

Are you kidding me?

This is the stuff that fantasy baseball is made of - these are the kinds of trades you make when you play Baseball Mogul or OOTP4 - not the real live Cubs!! They just don't do stuff like this!

I'm gonna breathe for awhile, actually do some real work, and then I'll digest it all tonight and post my thoughts and analysis. In the meantime, leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

As trade for Foulke

The White Sox just traded reliever Keith Foulke and catcher Mark Johnson to the As for pitcher Billy Koch and one or two minor league PTBNLs. Interesting deal. Analysis soon.

Remlinger is all but in

This is very encouraging news, if it turns out to be true - Mike Remlinger might soon be a Cub. Allegedly, if he passes his physical and they work out the fine print, he will sign a three year deal somewhere in the 10-11 million range. See my thoughts below on Remlinger and the possibility of his addition to the Cub bullpen.

Thome goes to... Philly?

I know it's not an actual surprise that he has ended up there, given that the Indians and Phillies were the only two teams competing for his services, but I am pretty surprised that Thome took the money and ran across Pennsylvania to Philadelphia.

For one thing, Thome will not have the crutch of being able to DH once or twice a week when his back flares up. Perhaps he hates being a DH anyway, but in terms of overall value of the contract, he's going to have to stay healthy for the Phils to be getting bang for their buck. Another point is that had he stayed in Cleveland, he would have been the man - the only remaining player from their glory run of the mid to late 90s. He'd be staying in the town where he built his reputation - he'd even have the "Thome Alley" or whatever it was that the Indians were going to rename in his honor.

Besides all of that, Thome always struck me as a real blue-collar guy who just might want to stay in the blue collar town where he was so beloved. So, while I realize that the Philadelphia offer was likely to be markedly better than the Indians offer, I wondered if Thome might be the guy to actually not follow the dollar signs and stay with Cleveland. Loyalty. Thome seemed to be a pretty loyal guy. Mark Shapiro is a really smart GM, and I thought that the combination of these two would leave Thome in Cleveland.

Not to be. Philadelphia's lineup now features Rollins, Abreu, Thome, Burrell, Lieberthal, and David Bell, with maybe Placido Polanco playing second base. That's a pretty great lineup. To be honest, they still need alot of pitching help given that their offense was already pretty good, but clearly the addition of 50 home runs in the middle of the lineup makes them a better club.

Still working on the Top 30 - maybe later tonight. In the meantime, leave me a comment on the newly installed comment feature or write to me here.


More soon.