Happy Thanksgiving

The Top 30+ list will have to wait until Monday - I was working on it some last night, but it needs a little more time. I promise it'll be up soon. Enjoy the turkey and football weekend.

Stop me if you've heard this one before...

The story goes something like this:

Jewish kid from the suburbs of anytown grows up following local baseball team. Kid worships team and tells everyone he's going to play for them one day. Somewhere along the line, kid stops having the talent to play baseball. Probably, kid just couldn't hit the curve ball.

Kid turns his attention to the moves of the General Manager, whereby worship of team goes from trying to hit like Ted Williams to going over minor league transactions like they were going out of style. Kid's daily activities include calls to local talk radio, digestion of every stat page in every local paper, letters written to local baseball pundits and analysts.

Kid goes to local elite college; makes family proud, friends jealous. Kid writes letter to big wig and big wig gives kid internship position in college. Big wig thinks kid is smartest kid alive. Kid gets introduced to other big wigs. Other big wigs agree with first big wig.

Kid gets hired out of college by baseball organization owned by second big wig and thinks he's living a dream. Big wig convinces kid to goto law school. Kid does whatever big wig tells him. While in law school, kid wonders what it's all about. Kid graduates from law school; makes family proud. Friends wonder what he's doing in California.

Kid goes back to working for baseball team after law school. Second big wig still likes kid. Kid works hard for baseball team and moves up ladder. Big wig changes teams and goes back to kid's hometown; gives kid better job with team back home. Kid can't believe his good fortune! Family still proud, friends still jealous. Big wig touts kid as representative of "new breed of baseball thought." Working for local team is even better than kid thought.

Local team looks for new General Manager. Local team turned down by first choice. Local team turned down by second choice. Kid thinks he knows things better than those guys anyway. Local team turns to kid. Kid named GM of the team he grew up worshiping. Kid thinks this is even better than before - now he knows what it's all about. Kid thinks "Nomah and Pedro work for me! Heh heh, that's cool and stuff." Family still proud, friends even more jealous. Media begins with diaper jokes. Kid doesn't care - he's the GM of one of the country's most storied franchises - Teddy Ballgame, Yaz and Fisk, Billy Buck and Matt Young. Kid is the coolest person in America right now ...and he's only 28.

Congratulations, Theo. You're now the idol and hero of hundreds of people under 40 right now, including me.

I've read all over the internet people say things like "hey, I'm young but I love baseball and I want to be a GM too." The fact of the matter is that there are fewer GM positions than there are Senators. It's probably among the most difficult positions to land in the entire country. But honestly, Theo Epstein's story isn't all that different from mine, all except for the Jewish part. With a little luck, someday maybe somebody will write a story like that about me. If only I get to be so lucky.

Look for my Cubs Minor League Top 30 Prospects List sometime in the next few days.
Write to me at bfsbaseball@yahoo.com. Thanks for reading.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood

Phil Rogers must have used a ghost writer this week because sadly there really isn't much material for me to dissect. But it's so much fun! I'll admit that it's easier to knock down a strawman than to say something completely original, but that doesn't mean I'm going to stop doing it.

Unsurprisingly, Rogers again makes the point that Thome is the right man for the Cubs. I get the feeling that he's just writing columns like this so that if things go bad for the Cubs this year, he can do the "I knew this would happen - remember I said we should sign Thome."

His comparison of Choi to Pokey Reese is a big-time stretch, too. He's right to say that Jim Bowden was dumb to make Reese the focal point of trade negotiations with the Mariners, but he's wrong on two counts: first, the deal still got done - Griffey went to the Reds and if Reese had blossomed like some thought he might, Bowden would have been hailed a genius. I daresay more baseball people think Choi will become an All-Star than thought Reese would. Second, Rogers doesn't mention at all the fact that Thome and Choi both play the same position. If the Cubs were discussing a Choi for Thome trade, they'd be filling the position they'd be trading from. With Reese, if he were traded, the Reds would have added an outfielder while losing an infielder - in effect gaining at one position and losing at another. Right now, if the Cubs sign Thome, they'd be stuck with two first basemen.

Rogers would then say that, hey, that's ok - just trade Choi in one of my far fetched plans that I sketch out in the article. The problem with his trades is that he grossly oversimplifies things and there is never a more telling sign of this than his potential deal with the Expos -- he equates the relative trade values of Javier Vazquez, Tony Armas, Jr, and Michael Barrett as the same and thinks that any one of them could be peddled straight up for Hank Blalock.

First, Vazquez is more valuable than either Armas or Barrett. That's just easy. Barrett is a catcher and there's some value in that, but he had a pretty down offensive year last year. Armas has loads of potential, but at this point he isn't Vazquez' equal.

Second, it's doubtful any of those guys could be traded straight up for Blaylock, with the possible exception of Vazquez. All along, Texas has said they want teams to swallow one of their bad contracts (the 3 year 10M contracts signed by Todd Van Poppel and Jay Powell a year ago) in order for a deal to work. So even if Texas were open to moving Blaylock (which isn't clear as the defense and health of Texiera have both been issues recently), there's no way we could just swing a straight up deal like that.

An Ivy Leaguer in the Bullpen?

The Arizona Republic reported the other day that the Cubs have offered LHP Mike Remlinger a three year, 10.5 million dollar contract. Remlinger is a Dartmouth guy, so I'm obviously a little biased.

Here are Remlinger's numbers for the last three years:

2002: 7-3, 1.99 ERA, .198/.280/.277/.557 (opponent's BA, OBA, SLG, OPS)

vs LHB: .235/.293/.338/.632
vs RHB: .184/.275/.253/.528

2001: 3-3, 2.76, .234/.294/.378/.672

vs LHB: .322/.358/.556/.913 (!)
vs: RHB: .194/.266/.296/.562

2000: 5-3, 3.47, .207/.305/.320/.625

vs LHB: .203/.301/.266/.567
vs: RHB: .209/.307/.342/.650

Clearly he's a very effective pitcher and unique in that he's one of the few that is effective against both left and right handed hitters. Some writers have made grumblings that he won't be as effective without Leo Mazzone as his pitching coach and they point to his pre Atlanta numbers has evidence of this (4.82 in '98, 4.14 in '97). I love Leo Mazzone and no doubt he's had a huge impact on Remlinger, but there are two reasons I completely disagree with this.

#1 - in '97 and '98 he was a part time starter and part time middle / long reliever. Instead of being used in a setup type role, he threw 2+ innings at a time and started over 10 games each year. After going to Atlanta, his role completely changed, and there's something to be said to adapting to that role and thriving in it. Plus, his peripheral numbers as a swing man were still very good (145 Ks in 124 IP in '97), and that's why the Braves were smart to snap him up when they did.

#2 - the guy is 37 years old. I think it's a tad unlikely that, at this point in his career, a pitching coach will have a huge impact on him. Tom Glavine admitted as much the other day when he wondered what a pitching coach could teach him at this point in his life. Glavine is also 37. What's more likely, I think, is that Remlinger has gotten smarter as a pitcher and has adapted his stuff to fit his role on a pitching staff. He has excellent FB location, which is so important against RH batters for a LH pitcher and he relies heavily on sink and location.

To that end, I think Remlinger is actually more valuable than some of the other LH relievers out there exactly because he's good against BOTH lefties and righties. While his '01 numbers weren't very good at all, he was still an effective pitcher for the year and it's likely that, given his success against lefties in '02 and '00, that '01 was simply something of a fluke. I like the idea of having a LH specialist to come in and shut down a big LH hitter in the 8th inning, but I like it even better when you can bring a pitcher in to do that and then leave him in to face the right handed hitter that's up next.

So, while the Cubs are in the market for a left-handed reliever, they should be interested in Remlinger not because he's left handed, but because he's just good.

Don't forget to write to me at bfsbaseball@yahoo.com with reactions, suggestions, comments, restaurant reviews, political diatribes, or lawyer jokes.