"Just Missed" the Top 30+
Hope everyone had a nice holiday. Be sure to write to me with comments or questions.With the Cubs system so deep, many of these players would be included in the top 30 of other teams. As it happens, most of these guys were once top prospects but have fallen either because of a poor year or because of injuries. Still, some of them were highly regarded as recently as one year ago, and it's not unheard of for a guy to bounce back from an injury or a bad year. That's why I think it's worth it to keep these guys on the radar (in no real order):
- Nate Frese, SS
Freeser has had a rough go of it the last few years having been plagued by injuries for as long as I can remember. Just a few years ago, he had a great year in Daytona and the Cubs brass was raving about his defense, his soft hands, and his ability to work pitchers and counts. And then the injury bug hit. First, I think it was a pulled hammy. Then it was a badly jammed/sprained wrist. Then it was the leg again, and that seemed to linger forever. Last year he only accumulated 230 ABs in AA, and only hit .226. Still, he still has the soft hands and good range and projects to have above average power for a SS. This winter, he hit .270 in the Mexican League, so perhaps he's just getting healthy again. For the last two years, the offseason talk on Frese was "this will be a big year." Well, uh, you can say that again. I happen to think that if he stays healthy, he can become a productive player but there's just no way to know how frequent and how severe the injuries will be. I hope he makes it. As a fellow Iowa boy who used to play on the same high school fields, Frese is by all accounts a good guy and baseball needs more good guys.
- Jackson Melian, OF
Melian was nothing short of an uber prospect a few years ago with the Yankees (Corey R., eat your heart out). He is example #3 of what happens when scouts forget about actually having to hit curve balls. Melian is a physical specimen who puts on a great show in BP, but has little strike zone judgment (52 BBs, 125 Ks last year). He's also probably been rushed by both the Yankees and Brewers, and I hope the Cubs slow things down a bit for him. As I look at the numbers again, his walk rate actually wasn't all that awful last year. If he can improve it just a little bit, I'll start saying things like "he projects to be a 20 HR guy." Until then, however, he's just another guy whose tools bred a hype that his skills can't match. I like that one.
- Ray "Bananas" Sadler, OF
Some people thought Sadler should have been in the Top 30, but I just don't see it. He got his nickname from a group of Cub fans who noticed that his hits always come in large bunches. He was largely overmatched in the AFL, which isn't a good sign, but he put up a respectable .286 at Daytona with 11 HRs and 30 SBs. He doesn't walk that much, especially for a guy who runs well but scouts love his power/speed combination (noticing a trend here?). I'm gonna hold off on him until he hits at AA or betters his walk rate (only 27 in 450 ABs last year), whichever happens first.
- Mike Mallory, OF
Another in a long line of tools guys who can't hit. Mallory was an early draft pick who scouts have been projecting for years -- he and Melian actually are a pretty good comparison. Both play a good OF (and Mallory plays a great outfield), both have great bodies, hit long home runs, steal some bases, and can't hit curve balls. Mallory has spent alot of time in Lansing the last few years, and while he did hit better this year, he didn't exactly hit great. .255 with 16 HRs, but 119Ks and only 24 BBs. He just might have a Doug Glanville or Bo Porter type of progression, and his tools will allow him to get alot of chances, but he's in danger of falling off the radar this year.
- Carmen Pignatiello, LHP
Local kid gets drafted by team he grew up watching and makes good by going 9-11, 3.17 at Lansing. The only problem is that Carmen doesn't get alot of respect or pub, and looking at the numbers you'd think it was completely unfair. Well, it is a little unfair, after all - he was an All-Star and he struck out 139 in 167 innings. However, he's not on the prospect lists because he doesn't throw hard and at best projects as a LOOGY. He has good command, works his 86-88 FB on both sides of the plate and generally outsmarts most hitters, but unfortunately for him, he's going to have to pitch so well in the upcoming years that he forces the Cubs to make room for him. It's not really fair, but it's reality in this age of "upside" and "tools." I hope he proves them wrong and goes on to become the next Denny Neagle circa 5 years ago.
- Big Bad Ben Christensen, RHP
His story has been told before, and probably a hundred times too many (thanks to Rozner), but Christensen was a real big prospect at one time. Unfortunately, his career has been derailed by BOTH shoulder sugery (in 2001) and tommy john surgers (last year). He was really struggling to get his velocity back after the shoulder surgery and then his elbow gave out last year. Although the track record on recovery from tommy john surgery is generally very good, the combination is pretty scary. When he's healthy, Ben has a sinking 90-92 FB and has excellent command of it. His offspeed stuff is good, not great, but he's very smart about when he uses it and shows maturity beyond his years on the mound (I just know I'll get a comment about that one). I'll post my thoughts about the whole Molina incident another time (and I guarantee that I'll surprise a few of you), but for now it'll be a few years for Ben to get his stuff back, and that might be too generous.
- Scott Chiasson, RHP
The Cubs liked Chiasson so much (and didn't think Eric Hinske would pan out -- oops) that they gave up Hinske for him a few years ago. Chiasson responded with a great year as a closer in AA and AAA and a brief 10 innings for the Cubs. Last spring, he was penciled into one of the setup roles, but pitched horribly and was sent to minor league camp pretty early. Then he got pummeled in AAA and even spent some time back in AA before it was discovered that he, too, needed to have ligament replacement surgery in his elbow. When he was healthy, Chiasson had good command of a FB that got as high as 94-95 and also had a plus splitter and decent slider. I still think he can make it back - heck his AA numbers were better than Beltran's last year - but as always, it's tough to project injury recovery schedules. 2004 is probably about right.
