Hill Struggling

Great. Just great.

The collective beat writers have taken this opportunity to remind everyone that Bobby Hill does not have a hit yet this Spring -- as if we needed another reason for Baker to play his veteran trump card. Luckily, Mark Grudzileeyak (in honor of Harry) has a sprained ankle and won't be able to play his way into the lineup for a few days yet.

Can I just remind everyone that we are only 5 games into Spring Training? Why is it that if a guy goes 0-18 in the Spring, people are really worried, yet if a guy goes 20-32 with 8 HRs and 24 RBIs in the Spring, people say "it's only Spring" (as they did a few years back with Julio Zuleta)? Shouldn't it work both ways? If Hill wouldn't get any credit if he were 12 for 18 right now, why should be get criticized for being 0 for 18? It seems to me that either Spring stats are meaningful or they aren't, and you can't have it both ways.

Now, it might be fair to say that Hill is not being patient enough, or that he's suddenly come down with Chad Meyers fly-ball disease or something like that. That's a whole different ballgame for a lead-off hitter. But come on people, we are 5 games into the Spring and there is already talk that maybe we shouldn't be playing the kids.

It's gotten so bad that this morning I read that the Cubs are impressed with the play of Tom Goodwin in the leadoff spot and might consider playing him regularly in CF. Are they kidding? Don't get me wrong, Goodwin is fast and already has 6 SBs this Spring and should be a nice asset on the basepaths and as a 5th outfielder. But isn't that something completely different than taking away time from Patterson? Goodwin has the upside of, well, Tom Goodwin. Patterson just might hit 20 HRs this year AND steal 25 bags. I just can't believe that the Cubs don't understand the difference between the two.

In the end, I say let's all relax, hold our horses, breath a little, and not get too worked up. It's so early in the Spring, it's not even funny. Talk to me a month into the season -- then you can use the numbers to try to prove to me that the kids aren't hitting enough. Until them, give them something more than five Spring games to prove themselves.

Update

I came across this tidbit about the Blue Jays this morning:

"One ongoing story of Toronto's Spring Training has been the status of three Rule V players and whether the team can fit them on the roster. Tosca said that will play out over the next few weeks, but he also allowed that it would be tough to keep outfielder Jason Dubois."

I think that's great news and hope we get him back to see what he can do at AA this year.

Todd Sears roped his 4th homer of the Spring yesterday and is trying to work his way onto the Twins. Too bad they are going to carry 12 pitchers and already have about 4 1B/DH types. Still, it's great to see him do well.

Finally, head over to the Cub Reporter to see some great pictures of Christian's trip to Mesa. Andy MacPhail is now a blogger supporter!

posted by Bryan @ 3/07/2003 09:36:00 AM  

Who's Pitching in A Ball?

In my last column, I wondered out loud who would get the rotation spots at Lansing and Daytona and who would get bumped to the bullpen or stay behind at Boise. I'd like to break that down a little further.

Candidates for the rotation:

Luke Hagerty - tall lefty dominated at Boise last year and surely will start in Lansing if he doesn't skip directly to Daytona. He's on a faster track given his college experience.

Russ Rohlicek - Cubs picked him up in the Tom Gordon deal last year with the Astros and all accounts are that he has good stuff, if not great velocity. Got a few starts in for Lansing at the end of the year, but is likely a guy on the bubble of the rotation this year.

Bobby Brownlie - 1st round pick who just signed, there have been a number of reports speculating that he'll start in Daytona, both because he's pretty polished and because the warmer weather might be safer for his tendonitis stricken arm. He also might start in extended spring training just to get some reps in, but it depends on how he looks when he reports to camp... today. Click here for my scouting report on him.

Sergio Mitre - sinker baller extraordinaire and my #22 Cub Prospect. Had a pretty mediocre year last year until about August when he seemed to find a consistent breaking ball and suddenly instead of the 6 IP 4 ER starts, he was putting up 7 IP, 2 ER starts. He's got the stuff, and I think there's a spot at Daytona for him with a good Spring.

Felix Sanchez - something of an enigma - he's in big league camp right now and there is some talk that he could move right to West Tennessee as a closer. I hope that doesn't happen. He needs innings and he needs alot of them. As much as Francis Beltran struggled as a starter, it had to have helped his development. I hope there is also a spot for him at Daytona, but I suspect he might get pushed to a regular relief role because of the numbers.

Carmen Pignatiello - A guy who should by all rights have a spot at Daytona, but who might not since he doesn't throw that hard and the organization doesn't seem to consider him one of their top guys. If anybody gets hurt, he'd be in the rotation at Daytona.

Andy Sisco - BA recently rated him one of the top 40 prospects in all of baseball and I had him at the Cubs #3 prospect. He'll make a great #1 starter at Lansing this year.

Matt Clanton - my #28 prospect - I recently learned that he has had some biceps issues with this arm in the past, and given that he didn't pitch much last year, he's definitely a candidate for the Mesa team and some extra time. Doubtful he'll be in a rotation, at least to start.'

Jae-Kuk Ryu - I have him at #13 this year. He finished the year with a few starts at Lansing and will probably return there for a full season of cold weather.

Chadd Blasko - another tough one to place - I had him at #17 - another guy who didn't pitch much for the Cubs last year. Being a college guy, he should move more quickly and assuming he's healthy and has a good Spring and all of that, he should be at Lansing as well.

Ricky Nolasco - another of the underrated prospects - #18 for me - great numbers at Boise with more than a K per inning - I also think he'll end up at Lansing.

Justin Jones - most of us didn't think this would be an issue - given his youth and the fact that he just pitched at Mesa last year, we assumed he'd just goto Boise given the logjam in A ball. Think again. Word now is that he could goto Lansing as the #5 starter if he has a good Spring. I'm not sure that's the best idea, but there is something to be said for putting your top guys where they belong, independent of the others, and then filling in around them as necessary. If he makes it to Lansing, he'll easily be one of the youngest guys in full season A ball.

Carlos Vasquez - lefty started at Boise last year and threw 80 innings. Speculation is that he might be in the bullpen at Lansing this year, having been bypassed by some of the bigger names in the system. He's still intriguing and he's still left handed, but it's doubtful he'll be in the rotation.

Reynel Pinto - a real raw left hander that might have alot of upside, depending on who you talk to. I had him at #24 this year, and that may have been a little high, but I still am intrigued by his ceiling and his stuff. Still, I can't figure out a way to get him some rotation innings. I hope he gets 100 innings or so as a 2-3 inning reliever 2-3 times a week, probably at Daytona.

Rich Hill - 4th rounder out of Michigan last year, he started off pretty slow when he finally pitched. I would guess he'd go back to Boise just to get some innings, but it's possible he'll be in the bullpen somewhere at full season ball.

So where does that leave us?

Daytona: Brownlie, Mitre, Hagerty, Pignatiello, Felix Sanchez (I hope); Pinto, Rohlicek in the bullpen
Lansing: Sisco, Nolasco, Ryu, J Jones, and probably Blasko -- Vasquez and Hill in the bullpen, Clanton at Mesa for awhile

If Hagerty doesn't skip Lansing, J Jones could goto Boise, or Blasko could stay behind to build up arm strength. Rohlicek would probably then fill his rotation spot at Daytona.

Clearly, there are plenty of arms to choose from and most of these guys are real high ceiling guys. Both of these teams are going to be fun to watch this year. The last few years, our A ball teams have been mediocre while Mesa and Boise have both been pretty successful. This year, it's time for those kids to move onto full season ball.

I should be able to get a much better handle on this when I am in Mesa in two weeks and I will have lots of information to post then. There just isn't anything like 3 days at Fitch Park.

Be sure to leave your comments on where you think these 15 pitchers will all end up.

Write to me here.

News and Notes on the Cubs...

With the signing of Bobby Brownlie, the Cubs "stacked" pitching staffs in A ball are now even more clogged. At the Cubs Convention a month ago, Oneri Fleita joked that he had 15 guys that could easily fill the ten rotation spots at Lansing and Daytona. Clearly, Brownlie will start wherever he goes. The question is, who's getting bumped to the bullpen as a result and who's getting bumped from the pen to make the room?

A little birdie told me that Kyle Farnsworth hit 102 MPH on the gun during a live BP session the other day. Pat Hughes and Ron Santo were talking about how Farnsworth is the key to the success of the staff this year, and Farnsworth seems to be off to a great start. He loves Dusty Baker, he's not getting too many questions about last year, and regardless of his offspeed stuff, when you throw 102 - aint nobody gonna hit ya.

The Cubs also announced earlier this week that they are going to conduct an experiment at minor league camp - trying Brendan Harris behind the dish to see how he takes to the position. You can read an article from Baseball America about this here. It's certainly not every day that you take a player who has never played catcher in professional baseball, let alone one who has established himself as a legit prospect at another position, and then "try" him with the tools of ignorance. Still, I really like the move. The Cubs have made it clear that if it doesn't work out, it's no big deal, and that this is only going to be on a trial basis. At best, Harris needs a couple of years to adapt to the nuances of the pitcher/catcher relationship. At worst, he doesn't take to the position at all, and Harris goes back to Jackson, TN as a mashing third baseman. It doesn't hurt to try, and Harris seems to be the type of athlete who never has a clean uniform that is tailor made for an experiment like this. Who knows?

Rod Beck is getting alot of pub these days about how he just wants a job and how he wants to get to 300 saves in his career. I love the Shooter. I had so much fun with him in '98 that the idea of his rolling motion back on the mound is exciting indeed. Here's the problem -- there is NO room for the Shooter on this club. If Farnsworth keeps throwing 100 mph BBs and the club rewards Borowski for his work last year, as it should, Beck will be left eating BBQ and playing in a stadium on a river in Des Moines. Nevermind Juan Cruz, Alan Benes or the other random names that are in camp this year. I just don't want to see an ineffective Shooter get a spot instead of Borowski or Farnsworth. The solution? An injury. Stay tuned.

Finally, I want to give some props to a few names from my past. Old high school and legion ball teammate Ben Ford is in camp with the Twins and started off the Spring with a scoreless inning the other day. Unfortunately, he followed that up by allowing 2 runs in an inning in yesterday's game. He's a longshot to make the team, but he could also be Joe Borowski (hey, the two are actually pretty good friends, so why not?).

Another good guy - former legion teammate and high school nemesis Shawn Sedlacek hurled two scoreless innings today against the Cubs. Sean actually made a nice major league debut last year and strung together three or four solid starts when he first came up, but ended the year on a down note. He's an easy guy to root for, especially since he's an 86-88 guy with good sink and a good change and a pretty good deuce. I make no predictions with the Royals since logic and reason seem to rarely creep into their decisions, but he's close nonetheless.

Finally, Todd Sears, who was the last out in my team's victory in the high school state semifinals, is off to a good start with the Twins as well - 2 for 4 yesterday with a bomb. Sears is the classic guy who got labeled a AAAA player way too early. He has basically mastered AAA the past two years, but it's not as if he's ever received a real shot. If the Twins get smart and dump Todd Minkavafddfjdfhsewiz while his value is high, Sears would more than capably fill in. Here' s hoping he has a great Spring and gets traded somewhere where he get a few at bats.

Thanks for reading. Write to me here.

Brownlie Signs

Great news for the farm system today as righthander Bobby Brownlie signed with the Cubs for 2.5 Million, ending one of the longest holdout dramas in recent memory. According to this article on cubs.com, Brownlie will be in camp Monday when the minor leaguers report.

Looks like I got lucky with my prediction awhile back when I said that he'd probably sign for 2.5 Million. You can check that article out here. I also posted a scouting report for Brownlie here.

I'll have to do some thinking and decide where Brownlie fits on my Cubs Top 30 + prospects, but he'll certainly be somewhere in the top ten. It'll be great to see him throw in a few weeks when I am in Mesa.

Finally, apologies for the long delay between columns. I was both out of town and swamped at work. I plan on getting something new up tonight even. Thanks for checking back in - the columns should once again start being more regular now that Spring Training has begun.