Cubs Top 30+ Prospects
Sorry for the delay (sound familiar?). One note on 2-4 - for all practical purposes, they are interchangeable, not in terms of upside or ability to contribute but in terms of overall value. So, a high ceiling lefty that throws 95 in rookie ball is about as valuable as a couple of guys in AA ball who are overcoming injury or an arm issue. If Sisco puts up the same numbers next year in full season, he'll be at the top of the list, bar none, because a dominant left handed starting pitcher is about the most valuable commodity in baseball. Still, that's assuming alot and we'll have to see. Here are the top 4:
4. David Kelton, 3B/1B/OF, 6-3, 205. .261/.332/.462 at AA. 20 HR, 79 RBIs.
Kelton's been on the radar for a number of years after being a second round draft pick. He had some major shoulder troubles in high school, but the Cubs drafted him for his bat and moved him over to third base. He's done nothing but hit since becoming a part of the organization. His swing is so true that Cubs coaches are basically on a hands off policy with the mechanics of his swing. Unfortunately, he's battled a severe case of the "yips" at third base, which resulted in a brief shift to left field in 2001 and most of a season at first base in 2002. The organization felt it would be best to allow him to focus exclusively on hitting, which hopefully would lessen the mental stress that built up after struggling at third. Defensively, his fielding is actually pretty good to good - he has above average range to his left and steady hands. This winter, he's back at third base in the Mexican Pacific League. Although he had 11 errors in 43 games, reports were that most of the errors were with the glove and not the arm, and Cubs officials are pretty excited about that. Offensively, Kelton has solid pop and good power to right center, projecting to be a 25-30 home run guy. Being a high school draftee, Kelton is still fairly young in the prospect world and will likely return to AA next year. GM Jim Hendry reportedly loves Kelton and probably hopes that he can become a fixture at 3rd for a long time in Wrigley. The horrors of being the third baseman of the future aside, Kelton clearly has the bat to do it. If he really does have Steve Sax disease, his future isn't as bright - first base is blocked in the organization and his bat would not be nearly as valuable to the Cubs in LF. Still, you find room for a guy who can mash, and while his arm will decide his future at 3rd base, his bat will make or break his future.
3. Andy Sisco, LHP, 6-8, 260, 7-2, 2.43, 101 K, 77.2 IP, 51 H.
Last year I had him at #22 with the comment "could jump or drop dramatically this year." Well, uh, he did real good and he jumped ALOT.
A 2nd round pick in 2001, Sisco signed for a little over a million dollars. He's 6-9 and has a football player's body - he was even recruited to play defensive end in college. 101 Ks in 59 innings is absolutely filthy. Sisco can crank it up to 96 but sits more comfortably at 93-94. Given his height, his fastball also has decent sink to it. He also throws a curve, change, and splitter. The splitter is the best of the three, but some Cub officials are worried that he doesn't pitch off his fastball enough, relying instead on his splitter. At his age, the Cubs were right to ban him from using it for awhile to allow him to figure out how to use the fastball to set up hitters for other pitches, not to mention forcing him to throw his change and curve. Clearly, Sisco is a high ceiling prospect - 6-9 lefties with 95 mph FBs just don't grow on trees. The Cubs will handle him with care this year, as he will probably go for his first taste of cold weather in Lansing. He's still a few years from Wrigley, but this will be a big test for Sisco, to see if he can put the ghost of Todd Noel behind him (Noel was a #1 pick who breezed through his stints in rookie ball but never really got it going after that, at least in part due to injuries). He'll likely be on a pretty strict pitch count at Lansing, but the Cubs will probably let him throw his splitter again, hoping he can learn how to use all of his pitches and not just two. From last year at this time until now, Sisco made more progress than anyone in the entire organization - bar none. It's unlikely and almost impossible for him to duplicate that kind of progress, but the Cubs will be satisfied with any progress at this point. I've seen at least one person say that Sisco has one of the highest ceilings of any pitcher in baseball. While BA will probably have him as the Cubs #1 or #2 prospect, after what I wrote about Pie, I couldn't do that. Still, given his amazing upside, his velocity, fact that he's left handed, and the kind of progress he made last year, I can still comfortably put him at #3.
2. Nic Jackson, OF, 6-3, 205, .290/.329/.443 in 131 ABs at AA.
About 3 months ago, Jackson had slipped to somewhere betwwen 8 and 10 on my list. He is an exciting player, no doubt, but he suffered a flukish Jermaine Dye (foul ball off his leg) type of injury early in the season last year. After thinking initially that it was just a bruise, it turned out that Jackson had a small fracture in his leg which cost him the rest of the season. He had started the year strong in AA, hitting .290 and playing a solid outfield, but the lost months were very key to a young guy in his first experience at AA. Luckily, Jackson healed enough to play in the Mexican Pacific League this winter and he put up some very solid numbers - .283/.359/.488 in 127 ABs. Beyond that, however, there were two things in particular that made Jackson jump to #2. First, he walked 16 times. That doesn't seem like alot, but it's much better than the rate Jackson had in previous years, and just might show that he's maturing and gaining a better command of the strike zone which had been one of his few weaknesses. The second is that he was 14 of 15 in stolen bases. Now generally, I don't care much about SBs - there is some literature to suggest that they aren't that helpful in run production, and I hate when guys who can hit get written off because they can't run. But with Jackson, the reason this is important is what this reflects about the health of his leg. I doubt his leg was bothering him too much if he kept running on the basepaths. Jackson was labeled the most exciting player in the Florida Atlantic League in 2001, and it's easy to see why. He's got a strong frame, a sweet swing from the left side, and he sort of glides as he runs. He has the makings of that rare power / speed combination that scouts love and could hit 20 HRs and steal 20 with a .300 average. He'll probably return to AA for a full year this year, but if he perform there like he did this winter, you'll hear trade talk about all the Cubs outfielders in order to make room for this guy.
1. Hee Seop Choi, 1B, 6-5, 235, .287/.406/.513 in 478 ABs at Iowa - 26 HRs, 96 RBIs.
Last year, Choi's wrist injury really, really scared me. He missed most of the year and it seemed to be one of those things that would never go away. Knowing how just a small twinge in your wrist can affect your swing, I dropped Choi to about #5 last year because of the injury. Luckily, my worry turned out to be unnecessary. When I saw Choi take some BP last spring, I noted that not only was he crushing balls to left and left center, but whereas most guys hit homers that barely clear the massive fences at Fitch Park, Choi's cleared them with ease. Combine the homers with a .400 OBA and you have yourself a #1 prospect. There has been alot of talk this winter about how better pitchers will be able to exploit his one weakness - inside heat, but I think this has been idle speculation that has spread because it was said by a couple of writers that people think are smart (ask me who). At every level, Choi has faced a steady diet of offspeed stuff and FBs in on his hands, and somehow he's managed to torch pitchers to the tune of his .919 OPS last year. Yes, major league pitchers are better than AAA guys, but lots of AAA guys are major league vets who basically survive by exploiting hitters' weaknesses. It may be that Choi will swing and miss at alot of inside fastballs this year, or at least get tied up by them, but he'll also take alot of them and yank some of them out of the yard. We'll see if Baker lets him play all that much with Eric "anybody can get alot of RBIs if they hit 4th in the order" Karros, but I really think he'll prove the worriers wrong this year. He has the kind of power and batting eye that could keep him at Wrigley longer than Mark Grace. Defensively, he'll make people think Fred McGriff was a statue. Choi won't win any gold gloves, but he should be above average in terms of range and scooping ability. Simply put, there aren't many teams that wouldn't want Choi manning first base for them this year, and if given 450 ABs, Choi will hit 20-25 HRs, and might even jack 30. Hopefully, he'll have some early success so we won't have to listen to Dusty Baker talking about him "earning" the first base job anymore and he can just let him play. If he does, we won't talk about first base prospects in the organization for a long, long time.
