Bullpen Crunch

With the signing of Mark Guthrie this week, the Cubs bullpen is looking rather crowded. Guthrie got a 1.6 M one year deal with a team option for next year, or a 300,000 K buyout. The key is that his contract is guaranteed, like those of Mike Remlinger (~3.5M), Dave Veres (2M) and Pulpo (4M). So, the Cubs have spent a total of 11.1 million dollars on four guaranteed contracts. Despite Jim Hendry's assurances that "all jobs will be earned" in Spring Training, you can bank on these four guys being a part of the 2003 Cub bullpen.

That leaves 2 slots left for a whole slew of guys. Joe Borowski, he of the 2.73 ERA last year in 95 innings, suddenly is on the outside looking in, and that just aint right. Everyone agrees that he was one of the few bright spots in the bullpen last year, that he filled all bullpen roles well, and that he pitched whenever asked - even if it was the third or fourth straight day. He was the ultimate team guy, and now he doesn't even have a spot in the bullpen reserved for him going into the season. Why? Well, there's also Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz, Alan Benes, Rod Beck and a whole host of non roster invitees. If Farnsworth is anywhere near the plate this spring, his 97 mph heaters will get him a spot. Luckily, Cruz has options and might get sent to Iowa.

But what of the rest? What is worse than Borowski really needing to earn his spot is that there just isn't any room for the guy who comes to camp and has a great spring. Two years ago, that guy was Courtney Duncan. Duncan threw very well in the spring and made the club and was a key contributor to the Cubs 2001 success before he got hurt. Last year, that guy was Joe Borowski - see above for his success last year.

But this year, what if Will Cunnane or Heath Murray or even Rod Beck come to camp and add 2-3 mph to their fastballs and can suddenly get lots of people out? I'd like to think that perhaps Hendry will realize that he can deal from his strength and perhaps send Farnsworth somewhere, but the downside of that is that we'd be trading him while his value is low -- aren't we supposed to buy low and sell high? Guthrie, Remlinger and Veres cannot be traded in Spring Training as free agent signees. Pulpo could be traded, but who is going to want a 4M mediocre reliever? Besides, he'll be kept if he really has lost 20 pounds is able to shut the door in the 9th.

So what will they do? Beck really has no chance whatsoever of making the team, unless they go with 12 pitchers. This is a possibility, but Jeff Vorva of the Daily Southtown reminds me that Dusty Baker is a huge bench guy and likely won't want to lose flexibility on the bench by having a 12th pitcher. So what's the story?

Unfortunately, relief pitchers are about the easiest commodities in the game of baseball to replace. The value of most relief pitchers above "replacement value" is lower relative to all other positions in the game. Just look at some of the names from last year -- Joe Borowski, Chris Hammond, Darren Holmes, Mike Koplove, Rick White... heck even Mike Williams and Eddie Guardado -- all of these guys were available, either on the cheap or on the waiver wire at some point in the past 2 years. The point is that these guys are replaceable! They are available! They are plentiful! And they are out there. With a little luck, a little scouting, and the ability to analyze some AAA numbers, teams really should be able to assemble a cast of non roster invitees in the spring such that 1 or 2 of them end up making a contribution to the team for the year. The As have been brilliant with this over the years, with guys like Jeff Tam, Chad Bradford, and Mike Magnante throwing effective innings for them - and when they lost their effectiveness, the As cut bait and got a replacement. So why don't teams learn?

Of course it's not THAT simple, but it really isn't as hard as alot of teams make it out to be either. Last year, the Cubs suffered from alot of horrible years, but mostly they were horrible years from guys who had been exceptional the year before -- they were the same guys. Unfortunately, the Cubs were largely blinded by the previous success of a guy like Fassero and didn't realize how easy it would have been to replace him (at a level that couldn't have been any lower). Further, Baylor ended up sticking with him long after his effectiveness had serioualy declined (nevermind Baylor's horrible usage patterns with him).

In the end, I'm not too upset with the signings because the guys we got are pretty good. Remlinger might be worth the money because there are so few left handed setup guys around (and so the above analysis applies much much less). Veres has been durable, and other than Pulpo, the Cubs really aren't paying all that much too them. BUT, the aggregate effect of their presence is the liklihood that they will squeeze out a guy who really deserves to make the club after throwing lights out in the Spring. Maybe we'll be able to trade that guy for something of value, or maybe we'll end up needing that guy because one of the other pitchers gets hurt.

But it's more likely that we'll end up letting a hot arm toil in AAA, or worse yet we'll release him just so we can stick with these guaranteed contracts. It'll be a shame when it happens, because given how most major league teams don't understand replacement levels, when you find a Joe Borowski for the cost of a minor league contract, it really gives you a competitive advantage.

But when you send him back to AAA, you give it right back.

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