I will decide after I watch the Super Bowl commercials...

In a shocking development, Bobby Brownlie has announced that he will NOT attend practice tomorrow with the Rutgers baseball team and instead will decide on Monday whether or not he will pursue professional baseball or return to Rutgers for his senior season. This now marks the 327th deadline that Brownlie has set during his negotiations with the Cubs.

1/25 update: Brownlie has announced that he will NOT be returning to Rutgers and WILL be turning pro. While he has not signed a contract with the Cubs, he has turned over the negotiations to Scott Boras. It is still very possible that he will sign with an indy league team if the negotiations are not finished by spring training, but the Cubs' chances of finally signing him are now better than ever. Updated odds: 1:2 that he'll sign for around 3 M.

I mentioned earlier that I would post my scouting report on Brownlie. It is as follows:

                      Now         Future

Age                     22           ??

Height                  6-0          6-0

Weight                  210          210

Throws                  R            R

Fastball                60           70

Breaking Ball           55           70

Changeup                50           60

Command                 45           55

Delivery                60           65 

These are my numbers and not those of anyone affiliated with anything. I saw Brownlie pitch once as a sophomore in college and I remember his mechanics pretty well. They are typical of a shorter right hander but not overly violent. I wouldn't say he's real real smooth, but I'll just say he has solid mechanics. He has a tendency to rush his delivery like alot of young guys and as a result he falls off the mound too much sometimes. But when he's on, his delivery is not a problem.

The now ratings are a guess of where he is given his struggles at the end of last year and the reports I've see on his arm. One note - I've seen where some have questioned whether or not he actually has "shoulder trouble" as opposed to biceps tendonitis. Well, it's largely the same thing. The area of the biceps tendon that becomes inflamed is the area that attaches to the shoulder joint. If you were to point to where the inflammation is, people would say that you are pointing to your shoulder. Given that this is right next to the rotator cuff muscles, this can often lead to general shoulder inflammation or even an impingement of the shoulder. So, while the injury isn't as serious as a torn rotator, it's still serious enough to be concerned about especially since it tends to last and linger.

Still, at his peak, Brownlie's fastball was at 94-96 and this was a pretty consistent 94 - not a top at 94 and consistent 91. He backs that up with a hammer of a curve that is as sharp as a slider but breaks more than most curves you see in the majors, hence the 70 rating. He lost it mostly last year in college - it rolled much more, but still that has to have been affected by his shoulder issues. His change is still his third best pitch and isn't terrible, but likely will just end up as slightly above average.

His stature shouldn't, by itself, give people pause. His tendonitis might, but not his size. Think Roy Oswalt with a bit more build.

If he were to sign today, and he's healthy I'd slot him as high as my #4 prospect. Since he's bound to be pretty rusty, I might drop that to #8, just ahead of Luke Hagerty. Given the concerns with his arm, I think a fair slot has him as low as #10-11. I assume that once/if he signs, the truth about his arm will be more available and so I'll be able to slot him into one of these spots then. Until then, it's tough to do so given that nobody seems to know exactly what is going on and short of showing his MRI to my orthopedic resident buddy (Timmmmmyyyyyyyyyyyyy!), we won't know until somebody tells us.

In the end, though, it just seems much more likely that he'll sign now.

Updated odds: 2:3 that he'll sign for around 3M.

Still Deadlocked

And so another "artifical" deadline set by Bobbie Brownlie has come and gone, and still nothing.

This morning's Star Ledger indicates that he still hasn't made up his mind and either wants to attend practice Saturday with Coach Hill and the Rutgers boys, or sign.

We are starting to see the signs of a scared young man faced with a dilemma he never thought he'd have.

It seems to me that Brownlie has thought all along that his decision would be an obvious one. If the Cubs offered enough (3.6? 3.8?) he'd definitely sign. If they offered too little, he'd walk away (2?). If it was in the middle, he'd set lots of deadlines and try and force them to come up to his reservation price. If he did that, they should hopefully move into the area where it would be an easy decision.

Unfortunately for him, the Cubs haven't bit on his deadlines. He now seems faced with the realization that the Cubs aren't going to meet his reservation price. At the same time, he seems to get that their offer is much better than one he would just immediately dismiss. In the article he mentions that the offer is better than most other 1st rounders got. That's still a darn good offer and a heck of alot of money (3.2?).

And so this scared young man, he of the questionable negotiating tactics, is suddenly faced with a decision that probably seems much bigger than it is. At his age, I am sure he is stressing over the fact that this could be the biggest decision of his life...

Oh man what if I make the wrong decision and things don't work out, I have to do the right thing, I never thought it would be this difficult, 3.5M sure is alot of money, but Mr. Boras tells me I am worth more and might get more next year if I go back to school, but do I really want to go back to school again? I have to do the right thing. I never liked school much anyway, but Coach Hill is really nice and we'd have a good team and alot of fun, but then I probably wouldn't get to the majors until I was 25 or 26 and then maybe my shoulder will flare up again and suddenly I'm getting picked in the 8th round and being offered 10 K...

You get the idea. Stay tuned. I'll put up Brownlie's scouting report (20-80 scale) this afternoon.

Extra Innings

The 30 some deadlines that Bobby Brownlie has set have come and gone.

He now has an offer on the table. And all he has to do now is figure out whether to accept it.

Today's Newark Star-Ledger indicates that Brownlie indeed has an offer on the table, and though they don't know for how much, Brownlie indicated to Rutgers baseball coach Fred Hill that he would decide today, at least in part so that the team could make plans with or without him.

While this is about the 30th deadline that he has set, there is reason to think that this one might be the last. Brownlie put out word through the Rutgers SID that he wouldn't really make an announcement until he either signed on the dotted line or set foot in a classroom, whichever was first. Now, by involving his coach and teammates at Rutgers, thr scene is now more crowded than just Brownlie and the Cubs. It's easy to bluff the Cubs, but it's less likely that he'd bluff his own coach.

Most still feel like he won't sign, as the Daily Herald and Trib both have mentions of the fact that classes have started. But no news is good news.

Updated odds: 2:1 that he'll sign a 5 year deal for 2.5 M.

Today's Answer: Don't Bet on It

Things don't look promising between the Cubs and Bobby Brownlie.

While nothing has been finalized yet, Brownlie is still unsigned. While all of the beat articles this morning were going off of the fact that he had not signed yet, he has not gone to class yet and is still eligible to sign until he actually sets foot in a classroom.

Baseball America is reporting today that talks with Brownlie are ongoing and that today's media reports are "baseless." I think you can thank Carrie Muskat for that over at Cubs.com. Her report said yesterday that things didn't look good, even though she didn't have any info other than the fact that he hadn't signed, and then today all the local papers had similar stories with similarly flimsy support. So it's still possible, certainly. likely.

However, things don't look too good. Word is that he isn't budging much off of the 4M figure that he feels he deserves after Cleveland gave 4 M to Stanford pitcher Jeremy Guthrie in the spot right after Brownlie.

To further complicate matters, the Cubs don't appear overly sold on his health or effectiveness. This is a guy who hasn't pitched competitively for awhile now, and when he last did he was suffering from biceps tendinitis such that his velocity dipped into the high 80s and he even had an outing where he struck out ZERO in 6.2 innings.

Thus, they appear willing to spend 2-2.5 M on the chance that he can get healthy and regain the effectiveness that prompted Baseball America to label him the #1 prospect entering last season. But, with the health concerns there is risk, and they don't appear willing to spend as much as 4 M to take that risk, especially not with the success of the pitchers from last year's draft who have already signed (Blasco, Clanton, Hagerty, Petrick).

To further complicate things, there is talk that the Cubs are trying to end things amicably so that they can re-select him with the 6th overall pick this year IF he goes back to Rutgers, shows that he's healthy, and regains his velocity. If that's the case, then they'll be happy to risk the 4M on him (though it would be a waste of last year's pick) given the assurance of his health. But for now, they don't think it's worth the 4M and are only willing to go to 2M or so.

Again, nothing is official or final yet. But if you are a betting man, don't take the "over" on the amount of Brownlie's contract. It'll probably end up at zero.

Today's Question: Will He or Won't He?

GM Jim Hendry, along with John Stockstill, Gary Hughes and Brad Kelley traveled to California yesterday to watch 1st round pick Bobby Brownlie work out. The reason? Classes begin today at Rutgers University, and if Brownlie goes to class, the Cubs lose their rights to him. This morning, word from the Newark Star-Ledger indicates that the Cubs are due to speak with Brownlie's father, who is "handling" the negotiations with assistance from uber-agent/prick Scott Boras.

So will he sign or not?

I still think it's a longshot. If he really is asking for as much money as the absurd contract given to Jeremy Guthrie (in the spot after him - around a 4 million dollar bonus), there's no way Brownlie will be a Cub. He might just be saying all the right things to get the best deal possible, but that doesn't seem to ring true.

Here's an update from TeamOneBaseball.

Brownlie and his "advisor" Scott Boras have now set no fewer than 36 deadlines by which he would sign or return to class. A previous article had mentioned that if he hadn't signed by now, he'd be in class this morning. Now, they say the Wednesday class is the break point. I wonder if Brownlie remembers Matt Harrington...?

Prediction: odds are about 2:1 that he'll sign a 5-year deal by the end of the week with a signing bonus of between 2.8 and 3.3 million. I don't really put much stock into the Wednesday deadline - the real deadline is probably the school's drop/add deadline.

Leave your prediction below. Tomorrow, I'll write a scouting writeup on Brownlie and indicate where he'd fall on my Top 30 list.