Cubs Top 30+ Prospects

Here are players 5-7. One note - these three guys are all pretty close - about as close as any three guys on the list, so they are pretty much interchangeable in terms of order. I consider #s 2-4 to be very close as well, but for different reasons. Check in tomorrow for the final installment. Email me here. Enjoy!

7. Angel Guzman, RHP, 6-2, 180, 6-2, 2.39 in 94 IP at high A Daytona, 74 K, 5-2 1.89 in 52 IP at low-A Lansing - 42 H and 49 Ks.

Guzman is a kid who burst onto the scene in rookie ball a few years ago, and then really caught everyone's eye last winter when he pitched very well against good competition in Latin America. His FB is only 89-91, not the 93-94 that somehow keeps getting reported, but he gets good movement and has pretty good deception for a right hander. Seeing him pitch for the first time, you might call him a "short-armer" since he doesn't have real long arm action like many pitchers do. The other thing I find interesting about him is that he takes a very, very short stride - it's really about as short as I have ever seen. Still, he's able to get excellent sink on the ball and he's smart about using his sinker and setting hitters up. He breezed through Lansing last year, and though he encountered a few struggles in Daytona, he was still largely effective. He has a good to very good change, but his breaking ball varies from below average to pretty good. If he can maintain his consistency with his sinker and improve his breaking stuff, there's no reason he can't continue to succeed. At 21, AA will obviously be quite a test (actually he's still 20 - happy birthday this saturday), but I tend to think that his sinker is the kind of pitch that should be able to carry him through the rough days when he can't find his other stuff. He seems to be remarkably durable and his change gives him a pitch with which to attack lefties. With a good spring, he might break camp in AA. If not, he'll go back to Daytona but would certainly end up in West Tennessee by year end. He'll make a great #3 starter in a few years.

6. Todd Wellemeyer, RHP, 6-3, 195, 3-3, 4.70 in 46 AA IP, 2-4 3.79 with 87Ks and only 63 H in 73 IP at high Daytona.

I debated the relative merits of Wellemeyer and Guzman for a long time knowing full well that everyone and their brother has Guzman ranked higher if not much, much higher. Having watched Wellemeyer for the past two years, I feel like I have a pretty good sense for the progress he's made as a Cub, and the results of his experience in the Arizona Fall League this year confirm that. In a league known for its hitting prospects, Wellemeyer cruised to the tune of 40 Ks in 34 IP to go with a 3.12 ERA and only 24 hits allowed. Scouts watching the league say that he was as good as any pitcher in the league. While Hee Seop Choi was hitting bombs left and right, many discounted it because there weren't many top pitching prospects in the AFL this year. We can't say that about Wellemeyer. His numbers this year at AA weren't exceptional, but he only started 8 times. Wellemeyer features two fastballs, a harder flatter one that can legitimately get dialed up to around 96, and a two seamer that has decent but not great movement at around 92. He has an excellent and deceptive changeup, and he throws two separate breaking balls - a bigger almost offspeed curve, and a sharp slider. If he has a weakness, it's with consistency with his breaking balls and then following that up with a well placed fastball. When he's on, he consistently overmatches hitters with high gas and great soft stuff away. He moves the ball around effectively and seems to be able to really gear up for tougher hitters. Scouts like his makeup and coaches like his attitude and bulldog mentality on the mound. Further, he seems to be able to maintain his velocity pretty deep into games - reports I saw of the AFL were that he was still throwing 94 or so in the 5th inning (he never went longer) which is a pretty good sign. All in all, Wellemeyer has the makings of a legit #2 rotation guy. Some feel he might be a strong relief pitcher, but I'd rather we saw pitchers with only two pitches go through that transition - Wellemeyer's arsenal is certainly good enough to use when facing hitters three and even four times. He'll probably go back to AA to start the year, but it wouldn't take much to get him to move up - an injury to Zambrano, a trade, whatever - Wellemeyer and Bruback are the closest to the majors of any of the Cub pitching prospects.

5. Brendan Harris, 3b/2b, .321/.345/.547 in 53 ABs at AA / .329/.395/.532 in 425 ABs at long A Dayton.

Another in the list of Cub prospects who "don't get no respect" - to borrow from Rodney Dangerfield. I guess the reason Harris isn't liked more is that he doesn't have that one tool that is amazing - he doesn't project to have 40 HR power, he isn't really, really fast, etc. My response is that he seems to mash pretty darn well - hence the disconnect between the "tools" and performance. Harris moved up to AA at the end of last year and never broke stride, easily stepping in as the team's top hitter during the AA playoffs. Some question whether he'll ever have enough power to play third, or whether he can play second well enough as a long term option. The reports I've seen are conflicting - some say he will continue developing his power, some say he won't. Either way, having a guy with a .550 slugging isn't a bad thing. Harris also has an excellent idea of the strike zone - with almost a .400 OBA average at A ball last year and only 50 some strikeouts. Players with that sort of hitting ability and batting eye don't take very long to move through the system, and it's easy to see why Harris is one of my favorite Cub prospects. He'll be deep in the top 10 of the BA list, and he didn't even make the top 10 of another Cub list I saw (a travesty), but different people focus on different things. I focus on the fact that Harris can play, he's improved every year, and his peripheral numbers suggest that he'll continue to get better as he matures. If he can pop 15-20 home runs next year, the organization may want to consider annointing him the 3rd baseman of the future (a dubious mantle for sure), espcially if Dave Kelton has to be moved to another position full-time.

Cubs Top 30+ Prospects

Here are 8-10. I'll do 5-7 tomorrow, and I'll put up the top 4 over the weekend (though by that point it really won't be much of a secret). I'm also planning on a list of guys who almost made the top 30 since some people have inquired about particular players that aren't on the list and obviously aren't in the top 10. Email me here with comments or questions.

10. Matt Bruback, RHP, 9-7, 3.15 ERA in 174 IP at AA. 158 Ks. #40 on my list last year - this is exactly why Leiscester or Pinto could move quickly.

I think it's about time that somebody gave Matt some love. To do what he did at AA last year and hardly get noticed is just wrong. I know that he pitched in a pitcher's park and what is largely a pitcher's league, but so what? He was almost at a K per IP and he was remarkably consistent. He led all of AA in Ks with 158 , he was #2 in innings pitched (174) in AA, and #3 in ERA (3.16) in the SL. These are really very good numbers. If he has a weakness, it's that he's significantly less effective against LH hitters than RH hitters - to the tune of a .208/.286 vs .273/.383 split (BA and SLG). His progress last year is exactly why you have to still be thinking about a guy like Leicester - I mean, these numbers he put up at AA were better than the ones Juan Cruz put up in AA a few years ago. Last Spring I was fortunate enough to watch Alan Dunn, the Cubs AA pitching coach, work extensively with Bruback on side mounds. They focused less on mechanics and stuff and more on patterns of pitches and mentality. Whatever it was, it seemed to work. Bruback should be one of the few prospects in the Iowa rotation this year, and although the Cubs and scout watchers have largely ignored him until now, he'll force their hand if he puts up these kinds of numbers in AAA. I remember about 4-5 years ago when Miguel Batista was in the system, he threw 5-6 excellent games in a row for Iowa and even Ed Lynch noticed - Batista came up and pitched pretty well, and people stopped caring about whether he was a real prospect or what he had done in A ball 3 years earlier. There's a strong caveat that the Cubs have a pretty stacked rotation as it is, so Bruback's chance might end up in relief, but I hope he has the same fate as Batista this year.

9. Luke Hagerty, LHP, 6-7, 230 5-3, 1.13, 50K, 48 IP, 32 H at Boise.

Pitched in the shadow of last year's overall #1 pick Bryan Bullington last year at Ball State, Hagerty exploded onto the scene at Boise after signing. At 6-7, 230 he has a long and pretty lean body and one scouts love because they get to use words like "projectable" and "when he fills out" or "when he strengthens his trunk." 32 H in 48 IP with 50 Ks is really good. Allegedly his fastball is just average at 88-90, but he has what is usually a plus slider with tight spin and a good change that he uses against right handed hitters. His command of all three pitches is also pretty advanced, meaning he could move quickly the next couple of years. That's usually the advantage of drafting guys like Hagerty - their experience in college generally lends itself to much more polish and command. A guy like Justin Jones is still a great prospect, no doubt, but it'll certainly take him longer to move than Hagerty. He'll still just be 22 when next year rolls around and the Cubs are salivating over his size and body and his ability to throw the ball on a downward plane. The track record on tall college pitchers like this is pretty good, and I've heard more than one scout compare him to Mark Mulder (from Michigan State) of the As. Mulder moved very quickly through the ranks on his way to becoming one of the league's top pitchers and the Cubs hope Hagerty follows a similar path.

8. Francis Beltran, RHP, 6-5, 220 - 2-2, 2.59, 23 saves, 43 Ks in 41 IP at AA

Few pitchers have made as much progress over the past few years as Beltran. Two years ago I saw him in Spring Training as another guy with a nice arm but nothing overly special. He threw 90-92 but was pretty wild and tired quickly. At the time, the Cubs were trying him as a starter just to get some innings under his belt. At the end of last summer I saw Beltran pitch an inning against the Reds from the 3rd row behind home plate at Wrigley, and it's like our little boy is all grown up now. At 6-5, he's got a nice mound presence and is pretty physically imposing. What's more imposing were the three straight 96 mph heaters he blew by the first hitter of the inning. What was even more imposing was the nasty 87 mph slider he broke off on the next hitter after he had fouled off a fastball. Simply put, Beltran's stuff is filthy. He has a true, legit 95 mph fastball and a sharp slider to back it up with. When he first came up to the Cubs, he showed some typical rookie signs - couldn't control his fastball, didn't hold runners very well - basically he looked scared. But that night at Wrigley, that all seemed to be behind him, and I really think that the time he spent with the Cubs at the end of last season will give him an edge as he heads to Spring Training. To be totally honest, I think he has a real good shot of breaking camp in the Cubs pen, especially if the Cubs don't go and sign 38 middle relievers at the Winter Meetings. If they do, he can go to Iowa and close in the cold weather there. His control sometimes abandons him and as a reliever, his control will particularly be an issue. I happen to think that in the end he'll just end up being "wildly effective" - he may not hit his spots all the time with his fastball, but his movement and velocity will allow him to get away with it most of the time. At West Tennessee this year walked less than 2 per 9 IP while allowing less than 5 hits per 9. Now I wouldn't expect that in the big leagues, but there isn't any reason to think that he will suddenly walk 7 per 9 or allow 11 hits per 9. He certainly won't close this year, but he has the stuff to and might be an option in '04.

Cubs Top 30+ Prospects

Sorry for the delay - here's #s 11-20.

20. Aaron Krawiec, LHP, 6-6, 210, 7-10, 4.09 ERA in 159 IP at high A Daytona

Maddening inconsistency plagued Krawiec's first few years in the Cubs system, and few can forget the night he struck out 17 in 8 IP at Lansing a few years ago. He gave up 13 runs combined over his next two starts. His pluses are that he has loose and easy delivery from the left side and also adds some deception. He has excellent sink on his FB and flashes a plus change to RH hitters. When he's on, he works with alot of FBs around the zone and puts away hitter with his change or curve, which right now is his 3rd best pitch. Last year, Krawiec was much more consistent and seemed to be concentrating more on outs and less on strikeouts. He lasted longer in games, and though he gave up more hits, I'm betting the experience did him some good. There have been rumors that he picks at the zone too much and some nights umpires just don't give him the corners and he's forced to throw over the middle of the plate - something his 90 mph FB shouldn't be subjected to on a routine basis. Like most pitchers, command will make or break him, but the Cubs hope he's realized that every pitch doesn't have to be exactly perfect - just good enough, especially with his movement. Being left handed, he'll get plenty of chances and will face a test that Leicester and Wellemeyer handled decently well last year in AA. He's another guy that could move very fast if it clicks, but he's probably a year away from doing that.

19. Luis Montanez, SS, 6-2, 175 .265/.333/.353 in 487 ABs at high A Daytona.

Cubs #1 draft pick in 2000, Montanez has been a bit of a disappointment for such a high pick. Particularly disappointing last year were his power numbers - only 21 doubles and 4 HRs in almost 500 ABs. The good news is that his walk rate improved, even if slightly from last year and his OBA improved by about 20 points. He also has very soft hands and at least a decent arm from short. Many have speculated that he will end up at 3rd or 2nd because of his defense, and the Cubs played him at 2nd for 20+ games last year. I still hold out hope that he can make it at short, if only to improve his trade value or utility value. I like his approach at the plate, and I think his walk rate will continue to improve. It's not so much that he's not selective, it's just that he's aggressive in advantage counts and swings at alot of 3-1 and 2-0 pitches. The merits of that approach can be debated, but the big test will be this year at AA. Even if the Cubs move him to second, they still think he'll learn to lift the ball as he gets older, sending some of his deeper drives over the fence. A .270 20 HR middle infielder is pretty valuable, regardless of what numbers he put up in the minors, and I think there's a decent chance that will happen. Unfortunately, there's a better chance that the breaking balls in AA will make his head spin. He's still worth a shot, but after being on the top ten the past two years as a result of his "tools" and "hype" he's quickly fading and is exhibit D for why guys like Pie and Dopirak are not ranked higher. If his numbers this year are at least similar to this year's, against the better pitching of AA, I think it will show a slow but steady path on his way to a career as a utility player. Heck, Mike Benjamin still has a job.

18. Ricky Nolasco, RHP, 7-2, 2.48, 92K, 90 IP at Boise

Nolasco is a big of an enigma - his numbers obviously were excellent, but I found that sometimes he'd have 12 Ks in 6 IP and sometimes he'd have 2 Ks in 5 IP. To be honest, this is actually a good sign - learning to pitch without your best stuff is one of the toughest things a pitcher needs to learn to be successful, and my only concern is that it might happen a little too frequently to Nolasco. In his defense, he's been behind a number of strong prospects the past few years and pitched behind Andy Sisco at Boise last year. Just like most of the other pitchers in the Cubs system, if he were a part of the White Sox system, he'd probably be in the top 10 and clearly would have been ranked higher in earlier years for the Cubs when their system was much, much leaner. I'd like to see how Nolasco handles cold weather and a full season of A ball before I get too excited, but he is not one to be forgotten as one gets lost in the waves of arms the Cubs have in their sytem. Oh what an excellent problem it is to have when guys don't get enough attention.

17. Chadd Blasko, RHP, 6-6, 215

Great pitcher's body drafted as a supplemental pick last year out of Purdue. The thing that I like about him is that he has a heavy fastball with good sink, and as you've noticed, I have a soft spot for sinker ballers. Scouts say he has a "power" arm. I haven't seen him pitch yet, but I've read alot about him and really like his potential. So far, his biggest problems have been inconsistent mechanics and an inconsistent breaking ball. But at 6-6, 205, he's got a great frame and I have no doubts that the Cubs coaches can help to smooth his mechanics. His velocity has been as high as 96, but is more consistently 90-93. 90-93 with sink is better than a straight and flat 96 anyway. He hasn't done anything yet, and his spot on my ranking is based on his hype, but most reviews on him are very very positive and he's another guy I will be watching closely this Spring in Mesa.

16. Billy Petrick, RHP, 6-6, 220, 2-1, 1.71, 21 H and 35 K in 31 IP at Rookie Mesa

Petrick was one of the top long snappers in the nation in high school and had football scholarship offers from a number of schools, but thankfully chose the Cubs over football. He's still only 17, and at 6-6 220, he's got a tremendous pitching frame. His velocity is decent right now, but he might pull a John Leicester in a few years and suddenly start popping 94. His curve is inconsistent, but is very good when it's on. He is even more projectable in that his mechanics are still pretty raw - he looks like the kind of kid who just
picked up pitching a year or two ago after a coach noticed he had a good arm from the outfield. This may be true, I don't know, but the Cubs are very excited about his success last summer. He and Jones will form the core of what has the makings of being a ridiculously good rotation at Boise next year (seems like they do every year), along with Matt Clanton and Chad Blasko (not to mention Bobbie Browlie if he ever signs). At this point, he's too inexperienced to rank much higher but Petrick is a nice addition to the list of young arms the Cubs are accumulating.

15. Justin Jones, LHP, 6-4, 185, 3-1, 1.80, 31 H in 50IP, 53 K at rookie Mesa

At only 18 and drafted in the 2nd round out of high school last year, Jones was one of the many strong picks the Cubs added to the system in the early rounds. He is a very lanky 6-4 and could conceivably add 15-20 pounds as he grows up and fills out. Did I mention that he's left handed? He already has two plus pitches in a 90 mph FB with decent movement and a good sharp curve. He still needs work on a changeup, but so do all young pitchers not named Maddux. Jones is still really far away (despite those who have him their Cub Top 10), and like many prospects, he hasn't proven himself in back to back years yet. If he puts up these kind of numbers again next year, regardless of level, he'll probably crack the top 10, and if he were in another organization he'd be much higher. But for now he'll have to settle for being one of the youngest prospects in a very deep Cub farm system.

14. John Webb, RHP, 6-3, 190, 4-5, 4.52 in 51 IP at AA.

Webb is another of my grand sleepers. Two years ago he was in Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects List, then he was felled by arm surgery. Last year he rebounded with pretty decent numbers for a guy just off major surgery. His strengths are his command and his ability to get ground balls. He is around the plate most of the time and the Cubs are excited about his potential to pitch in the tall grass of Wrigley Field. His velocity this past year was nothing special, but that wasn't surprising given the surgery and it will be an excellent sign if he rebounds this year to the 88-90 range he was in before surgery. His ERA may have been high, but he still managed to allow less than 1 hit per inning (only 1.2 WHIP). He's fallen off the radar screen on almost everyone's prospect lists, but I think he's primed for a breakout year if his arm stays healthy. I may have him a bit high, but I was very, very impressed with the way he handled AA fresh off of surgery.

13. Jae-Kuk Ryu, RHP, 6-3, 175, 5-1, 3.57, 56K, 53IP, 45H at Boise, 7.11 ERA in 19 IP at Lansing, 21 Ks.

One of the fruits of the Cubs recent Korean presence thanks to Pacific Rim coordinator Leon Lee. Lee somehow fell out of graces with the organization last year and ended up as a hitting coach at AAA Iowa. Then this offseason he accepted a position coaching in Japan, so it is unclear what sort of continuing presence the Cubs have in Korea now that Lee is gone.

Anyway, back to Ryu. He has a lean body and throws 4-5 different pitches. His strengths mostly are: (a) he's 19, (b) he's got the makings of a power arm. Did I mention that he's only 19? Now you're noticing the trend. Last year he had an amazing tendency to both be hurt by his defense and also to fade late in games (though this was likely due more to pitch and inning limits rather than a problem with stamina), but the good news is that he rarely got hit in the first innings of most of his starts. I don't have the stats at hand, but I'd be willing to bet his K rate in his first 3 innings was over 9 per 9 IP, and his K rate after innings 1-3 was around 6 per 9 IP. Amazingly, he is said to have excellent command of all five of his pitches - a very advanced sign at such a young age. His splitter gets him alot of ground balls and at this point the biggest questions are whether he can adapt to the United States culture. He still hardly knows the language and that has led to some communication breakdowns in games. That's what is so tough about Asian players is the fact that there are so few of them here to give him a support network. If a player is from Latin America but doesn't speak English very well, it's usually ok because not only are there alot of Latin players in baseball, but many coaches now speak Spanish as well. I cannot imagine what it must be like for a shy kid who doesn't speak English to live in the United States, but I'm told he smiles alot and is trying very, very hard to learn more about the culture and language. If he can do that, the pitching part must seem easy. I think he'll struggle more than some want him to this year as he plays his first full season in cold weather, but I'll be looking more for how he reacts than how he pitches.

12. Steve Smyth, LHP, 4-4, 3.58 in 73 IP at AA, 3-2 5.81 at AAA, 9.35 ERA in 26 innings for the Cubs.

I think Smyth gets a bad rap. He had a pretty rough month pitching for the lifeless Cubs in August/September and suddenly people were calling him a bust and a chump. Let me make one thing clear: Steve Smyth is not a bust! He's had all of 26 innings in the major leagues - not exactly a good sample size. His numbers in AA (and in previous years) were simply too good to write off. His peripheral numbers in AA were excellent - 74 Ks and only 62 hits in 73 IP. Plus, this was his first year off of minor shoulder surgery, and nobody really knew what to expect from him. Unfortunately, he was bad-mouthed so much by the press and by Bruce Kimm that it's tough to know what sort of hit his psyche took. Smyth isn't flashy and rarely heats up over 90, but he's consistently high 80s and his FB has pretty good sink. He has a plus change and a sometimes above average breaking ball. Assuming his head is ok, Smyth will likely start in AAA, and I think he'll probably really step it up and have similar AAA numbers this year to his AA numbers last year. Knowing how much Jim Hendry loves left handers, if he succeeds this year, I won't be at all surprised if Zambrano or Cruz are made available - not now, but sometime during the season.

11. Felix Pie, OF, .321/.385/ .569 in 218 ABs at short season Mesa

Pie, whose name is pronounced Pee-ay, is another of the Cubs youngest players getting a great deal of media attention. His numbers at Mesa were very good, and he excited scouts and coaches with his defense, speed and his league leading 13 triples (!!). His walk rate is decent, and he had 33 extra base hits in only 218 at bats this year. It is almost impossible to project what guys like Pie will become given his age and the relatively low level of competition he's faced. I like Pie alot, but I think it's silly to include him in the top 10 when he really has only had a couple of good months of baseball so far in his career. I mean seriously, how many guys have the CUbs had who tore up rookie ball and scouts drooled over their tools? If you don't remember the name Earl Cunningham, then this list is probably teaching you alot, but if you do you probably understand my concern. Pie's upside IS huge, and scouts drool over his 5 tool potential. But, to me, I say let's let him prove it in a full year of competition before we call him the second coming of Sammy Sosa. Just look to JJ Johnson for what can happen when a player plays a full year in a cold climate. If Pie has another yearlike this one, I'll be happy to put him in the top 5 next year and write about how I didn't give him enough credit.

Please leave me comments if anyone has any specific questions about any particular player or Email me here.

Apologies for the delay, I had some network problems at home over the weekend and wasn't able to update my site. 11-20 will be up shortly.

In the meantime, go over to Aaron's baseball page and read his take on this year's Hall of Fame class. It's a good read.